If It was November 4, 2008 today... Red or Blue

Well, I was curious to see how this would all line up... So I decided that I'd tally up all the Pre-Super Tuesday Primaries and see who was coming out ahead, and what that might say for November. This is, of course, sloppy guesswork... but let's see.

Nevada Caucus:
Democratic Turnout: ~116,00 (Up from 2004's 9000)
Republican Turnout: ~44,000 (Up from previous highs of ~2-3000)



Result: The Democrats would probably win this state... Although, in 2004 the Dems also had higher #'s of people Caucusing... The state still went Red come November... This year's high numbers may make for a Blue state end result. 5 votes for Blue!

Florida:
Democratic Turnout: 1,684,390
Republican Turnout: 1,920,350


Result: Well... This was a primary that "didn't count" so says the Democratic Party... so its interesting that they are only tailing by a few hundred thousand votes... rather than a solid million. I'm sure there is a good number of people who didn't vote as a result of the general 'it doesn't matter, its not counted' apathy. So, on that point the state is still up for grabs... but we'll call it for Red again. Up 27 for Red.

South Carolina:
Democratic Turnout: 530,322
Republican Turnout: 442,918


Result: This one looks good for the Democrats... Blue State +8


Iowa:
Democratic Turnout: 220,588
Republican Turnout: ~114,000


Result: Same as Nevada. Both States had Democratic majorities for their primaries, but not by this much... Could forecast a change to Blue. Blue 7.

Michigan:
Democratic Turnout: 593,837
Republican Turnout: 842,565


Result: Well, this is another state that just "didn't count" for the Democratic Party. Since in both 2000 and 2004, this state went Blue... I don't foresee a change. But the Democratic leadership (as usual) are being idiotic concerning FL and MI; that's more than 40 electoral votes combined. Alienation is not a good strategy. They have months to pander to them, but first impressions count. On the border, but lets say Red. 17 on Red.

New Hampshire:
Democratic Turnout: 284,104
Republican Turnout: 233,381

Result: Surprise, surprise! Blue State. This state's republican primary does show how split the votes were...2 virtually tied for first at around 80,000 votes each, and then 3 competing for second, each around 20,000 votes. 4 electoral votes for Blue.


-------- Democratic Turnout:-------- Republican Turnout: --------
Maine: ---Feb. 10th ------------------------Romney--------
Wyoming: Coming March 8th --------...? =Romney?--------

Result: I can't find real numbers... just precinct data... so its anyone's guess. It is annoying that the numbers aren't published. I know roll is taken, so that data should be (and probably is...) uploaded to the state.

=================Vote Tally===================
---------------------Democratic: ---------Republican: -------
Nevada Caucus: ~116,000 -----------------~44,000
Florida: -------- 1,684,390-----------------1,920,350
South Carolina: 530,322 ------------------442,918
Iowa: ---------220,588-------------------114,000
Michigan:-----593,837--------------------842,565
New Hampshire: 284,104-----------------233,381
Total:-------- 3,429,241 ----------------3,597,214

Result: Republican Win. The Dem's need to Focus on MICHIGAN and FLORIDA!!! Voter Apathy could be the only reason for the Republican primary wins, but scorn may still last. Try to address this.

==============Electoral College==================
---------------- Democratic: --------Republican: --------
Nevada Caucus: --------5 ----------------0
Florida: ----------------0 ----------------27
South Carolina: --------8 ----------------0
Iowa: ------------------7 ----------------0
Michigan: -------------0 ----------------17
New Hampshire:------ 4 ----------------0
Total: ----------------24 ----------------44

As can be seen, Florida and Michigan count. A lot. Even by winning every other state, the Democrats still lose without one of them. This is only primary data, but it shows that some things need to be watched. It also shows that its not a good idea to give the finger to Florida and Michigan, and wander off. (Not that this will happen during real election time, but still, don't make enemies.)